[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On November 7, nickel prices moved downwards after a higher opening, while the US dollar index continued to decline intraday.

SMM Nickel November 7 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) US Fed officials remained cautious. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee cited a lack of reliable inflation data and was cautious about interest rate cuts; Cleveland Fed President Mester emphasized inflation risks and opposed further rate cuts; however, Governor Bowman continued to expect the US Fed to cut interest rates in December; New York Fed President Williams believed that model-based estimates of the US neutral interest rate are around 1%.

(2) The US dollar index continued to decline intraday, falling below the 100 mark and extending losses during the US trading session, ultimately closing down 0.45% at 99.67. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.088%, while the policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield closed at 3.570%.

Spot Market:

On November 7, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranged from 119,200-122,600 yuan/mt, with an average price of 120,900 yuan/mt, up 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,900-3,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 3,000 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -150-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2512) moved downwards after a higher opening in the night session and continued to decline during the morning session on the 7th, closing at 119,170 yuan/mt by the midday break, down 0.17%.

Cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and uncertainty from a potential US government shutdown continued to pressure the market environment. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend within the current range, with a reference price of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.